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FX Trends: Markets to realise a shallower easing path

19 Jan 2024

Key takeaways

  • Market thoughts of a shallower global easing cycle should support the ‘safe-haven’ USD…
  • …but create headaches for “risk on” currencies like the AUD and NZD
  • The EUR and GBP are likely to face both external and domestic headwinds

Our tactical view

Table of tactical views where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY):An up (⬆) / down (⬇) / sideways (➡) arrow indicates that the first currency quotedin the pair is expected by HSBC Global Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks. The arrows under the “current” represent our current views, while those under “previous” represent our views in the last month’s report.

Note: ^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP,CAD, SEK and CHF. Source: HSBC

Explanation of terms

Related insights

 

The “risk-on” mood and associated USD weakness could risk conflating a US soft-landing... [29 Nov]

 

The US Dollar Index may see a fresh rally in the weeks ahead, supported by fundamentals. [27 Oct]

 

After the USD rally seen since mid-July, further near-term gains are likely to be more…[5 Oct]

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