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FX Trends: Consolidation for most, but not the EUR and JPY

27 Feb 2024

Key takeaways

  • Much of the adjustment to US rate expectations may be complete for now...
  • …further USD gains will be more difficult; we look for consolidation in most G10 FX.
  • The ECB and BoJ meetings provide scope for some colour, with downside risks to the EUR and upside risks for the JPY.

Our tactical view

Table of tactical views where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY):An up (⬆) / down (⬇) / sideways (➡) arrow indicates that the first currency quotedin the pair is expected by HSBC Global Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks. The arrows under the “current” represent our current views, while those under “previous” represent our views in the last month’s report.

Note: ^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP,CAD, SEK and CHF. Source: HSBC

Explanation of terms

Related insights

 

Market thoughts of a shallower global easing cycle should support the ‘safe-haven’ USD…[19 Jan]

 

The “risk-on” mood and associated USD weakness could risk conflating a US soft-landing... [29 Nov]

 

The US Dollar Index may see a fresh rally in the weeks ahead, supported by fundamentals. [27 Oct]

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