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FX Navigator (June): Awaiting catalysts

29 May 2026

Key takeaways

  • The geopolitical stalemate, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade persisting, looks set to keep many currency pairs range-bound in the coming weeks…
  • …even though rate differentials start to get some traction.
  • Exceptions: the GBP and CAD are expected to weaken, while the RMB is expected to strengthen over the same period.

Our tactical view

^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF.

Source: HSBC

HSBC Positioning Indices

Note: Priced as of market close 26 May 2026

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

Note: *Priced as at 18:23 HKT on 27 May 2026

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

Related insights
The GBP has remained resilient within its one-year range despite multiple market shocks. [18 May]
“Risk-on” currencies gained notably against the USD amid improved market sentiment. [11 May]
USD-JPY fell sharply after briefly moving above 160. [5 May]
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