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FX Trends: G10 currencies: Oil-linked?

26 March 2026

Key takeaways

  • The USD may strengthen in the weeks ahead, largely tracking movements in oil prices.
  • The GBP appears better positioned than the EUR, particularly if energy prices rise.
  • The CAD may give back some of its recent resilience, while the CHF’s strength looks capped.

Our tactical view

Table of tactical views where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY):An up (⬆) / down (⬇) / sideways (➡) arrow indicates that the first currency quotedin the pair is expected by HSBC Global Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks. The arrows under the “current” represent our current views, while those under “previous” represent our views in the last month’s report.

Note: ^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, and CHF. Source: HSBC

FX Data Snapshot

(from close on 23 February to 25 March*)
FX
Spot
200 dma

1-month %

change*

Support
Resistance
DXY
99.36 98.40 1.69% 98.40 100.50
EUR-USD
1.1601 1.1679 -1.77% 1.1400 1.1840
EUR-GBP 0.8654 0.8693 0.65% 0.8575 0.8780
GBP-USD 1.3406 1.3434 -1.13% 1.3220 1.3580
USD-JPY
159.01 152.36 -1.66% 155.00 161.95
EUR-JPY 184.47 177.93 0.12% 180.80 186.87
USD-CHF
0.7900 0.7948 -2.22% 0.7800 0.8000
EUR-CHF 0.9165 0.9282 -0.42% 0.9000 0.9287
USD-CAD 1.3783 1.3804 -0.78% 1.3520 1.3930
AUD-USD
0.6973 0.6673 -2.11% 0.6900 0.7187
AUD-NZD 1.1989 1.1383 -0.98% 1.1680 1.2150
NZD-USD
0.5816 0.5863 -3.05% 0.5770 0.5970
(from close on 23 February to 25 March*)
FX
DXY
Spot
99.36
200 dma
98.40

1-month %

change*

1.69%
Support
98.40
Resistance 100.50
FX
EUR-USD
Spot
1.1601
200 dma
1.1679

1-month %

change*

-1.77%
Support
1.1400
Resistance 1.1840
FX
EUR-GBP
Spot
0.8654
200 dma
0.8693

1-month %

change*

0.65%
Support
0.8575
Resistance 0.8780
FX
GBP-USD
Spot
1.3406
200 dma
1.3434

1-month %

change*

-1.13%
Support
1.3220
Resistance 1.3580
FX
USD-JPY
Spot
159.01
200 dma
152.36

1-month %

change*

-1.66%
Support
155.00
Resistance 161.95
FX
EUR-JPY
Spot
184.47
200 dma
177.93

1-month %

change*

0.12%
Support
180.80
Resistance 186.87
FX
USD-CHF
Spot
0.7900
200 dma
0.7948

1-month %

change*

-2.22%
Support
0.7800
Resistance 0.8000
FX
EUR-CHF
Spot
0.9165
200 dma
0.9282

1-month %

change*

-0.42%
Support
0.9000
Resistance 0.9287
FX
USD-CAD
Spot
1.3783
200 dma
1.3804

1-month %

change*

-0.78%
Support
1.3520
Resistance 1.3930
FX
AUD-USD
Spot
0.6973
200 dma
0.6673

1-month %

change*

-2.11%
Support
0.6900
Resistance 0.7187
FX
AUD-NZD
Spot
1.1989
200 dma
1.1383

1-month %

change*

-0.98%
Support
1.1680
Resistance 1.2150
FX
NZD-USD
Spot
0.5816
200 dma
0.5863

1-month %

change*

-3.05%
Support
0.5770
Resistance 0.5970

Note: *Priced as at 16:11 HKT on 25 March 2026

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

Explanation of terms

Spot: Spot refers to the current market price of a currency pair that is important for immediate transactions.

200 dma: 200-day simple moving average numberrepresents the average price of an index or a currency pair over the past 200 days.

Support (S), Resistance (R):Support and resistance are significant previous lows and highs plus retracement levels, based on historical price patterns of anindex or a currency pair. Support is a historical price level where a downtrend of a currency pair paused due to demand for the first currency quoted in the pair increasing, while resistance is a historical price level where an uptrend of a currency pair reversed amid demand for the second currency quoted in the pair increasing.

HSBC Positioning Indices

Note: Priced as of market close 24 March 2026 Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

The indicators have been devised to track the net position of momentum traders, looking at hundreds of strategies, operating over many different time horizons. It considers time horizons of 5 days up to 260 days. An indicator level of +10 would indicate that the hundreds of different strategies have all lined up and gone long (i.e., buy the first currency quoted in the pair). Similarly, an indicator level of -10 indicates that all strategies are short (i.e., sell the first currency quoted in the pair).

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