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FX Trends: G10 currencies: US tariff ruling

25 February 2026

Key takeaways

  • FX markets have remained subdued following the US Supreme Court’s ruling on emergency tariff powers.
  • With the USD likely to drift lower, the JPY, CAD, and NZD should remain steady for now.
  • The EUR and AUD look set to strengthen, while the GBP may come under more pressure.

Our tactical view

Table of tactical views where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY):An up (⬆) / down (⬇) / sideways (➡) arrow indicates that the first currency quotedin the pair is expected by HSBC Global Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks. The arrows under the “current” represent our current views, while those under “previous” represent our views in the last month’s report.

Note: ^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF. N/A = Not applicable, as we only provide short-term direction for those currency pairs from this issue. Source: HSBC

FX Data Snapshot

(from close on 3 January to 2 February*)
FX
Spot
200 dma

1-month %

change*

Support
Resistance
DXY
97.92 98.41 0.33% 96.50 99.50
EUR-USD
1.1780 1.1659 -0.84% 1.1651 1.1930
EUR-GBP 0.8738 0.8668 -0.62% 0.8663 0.8865
GBP-USD 1.3481 1.3447 -1.45% 1.3280 1.3750
USD-JPY
155.93 150.88 -1.12% 152.10 157.80
EUR-JPY 183.68 175.93 -0.28% 180.80 185.50
USD-CHF
0.7755 0.7988 0.18% 0.7600 0.7860
EUR-CHF 0.9136 0.9312 1.02% 0.9000 0.9330
USD-CAD 1.3702 1.3809 0.04% 1.3500 1.3930
AUD-USD
0.7068 0.6612 2.18% 0.7000 0.7150
AUD-NZD 1.1853 1.1258 -2.32% 1.1680 1.2000
NZD-USD
0.5964 0.5875 -0.17% 0.5880 0.6100
(from close on 3 January to 2 February*)
FX
DXY
Spot
97.92
200 dma
98.41

1-month %

change*

0.33%
Support
96.50
Resistance 99.50
FX
EUR-USD
Spot
1.1780
200 dma
1.1659

1-month %

change*

-0.84%
Support
1.1651
Resistance 1.1930
FX
EUR-GBP
Spot
0.8738
200 dma
0.8668

1-month %

change*

-0.62%
Support
0.8663
Resistance 0.8865
FX
GBP-USD
Spot
1.3481
200 dma
1.3447

1-month %

change*

-1.45%
Support
1.3280
Resistance 1.3750
FX
USD-JPY
Spot
155.93
200 dma
150.88

1-month %

change*

-1.12%
Support
152.10
Resistance 157.80
FX
EUR-JPY
Spot
183.68
200 dma
175.93

1-month %

change*

-0.28%
Support
180.80
Resistance 185.50
FX
USD-CHF
Spot
0.7755
200 dma
0.7988

1-month %

change*

0.18%
Support
0.7600
Resistance 0.7860
FX
EUR-CHF
Spot
0.9136
200 dma
0.9312

1-month %

change*

1.02%
Support
0.9000
Resistance 0.9330
FX
USD-CAD
Spot
1.3702
200 dma
1.3809

1-month %

change*

0.04%
Support
1.3500
Resistance 1.3930
FX
AUD-USD
Spot
0.7068
200 dma
0.6612

1-month %

change*

2.18%
Support
0.7000
Resistance 0.7150
FX
AUD-NZD
Spot
1.1853
200 dma
1.1258

1-month %

change*

-2.32%
Support
1.1680
Resistance 1.2000
FX
NZD-USD
Spot
0.5964
200 dma
0.5875

1-month %

change*

-0.17%
Support
0.5880
Resistance 0.6100

Note: *Priced as at 15:50 HKT on 24 February 2026.

Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

Explanation of terms

Spot: Spot refers to the current market price of a currency pair that is important for immediate transactions.

200 dma: 200-day simple moving average numberrepresents the average price of an index or a currency pair over the past 200 days.

Support (S), Resistance (R):Support and resistance are significant previous lows and highs plus retracement levels, based on historical price patterns of anindex or a currency pair. Support is a historical price level where a downtrend of a currency pair paused due to demand for the first currency quoted in the pair increasing, while resistance is a historical price level where an uptrend of a currency pair reversed amid demand for the second currency quoted in the pair increasing.

HSBC Positioning Indices

Note: Priced as of market close 24 February 2026. Source: HSBC, Bloomberg

The indicators have been devised to track the net position of momentum traders, looking at hundreds of strategies, operating over many different time horizons. It considers time horizons of 5 days up to 260 days. An indicator level of +10 would indicate that the hundreds of different strategies have all lined up and gone long (i.e., buy the first currency quoted in the pair). Similarly, an indicator level of -10 indicates that all strategies are short (i.e., sell the first currency quoted in the pair).

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