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FX Trends: Rangebound dynamics to prevail?

23 October 2025

Key takeaways

  • The USD will probably struggle to rally in the weeks ahead, with the Fed likely to extend its easing cycle, a US government shutdown, and US-China trade talks.
  • The CAD could gain by tracking the broad USD, while the EUR, GBP, and CHF hold range.
  • The JPY may strengthen, with fiscal fears overblown and upside risks around BoJ policy.

Our tactical view

Table of tactical views where a currency pair is referenced (e.g. USD/JPY):An up (⬆) / down (⬇) / sideways (➡) arrow indicates that the first currency quotedin the pair is expected by HSBC Global Research to appreciate/depreciate/track sideways against the second currency quoted over the coming weeks. For example, an up arrow against EUR/USD means that the EUR is expected to appreciate against the USD over the coming weeks. The arrows under the “current” represent our current views, while those under “previous” represent our views in the last month’s report.

Note: ^DXY = US Dollar Index, is an index (or measure) of the value of the USD against major global currencies, including the EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF. N/A = Not applicable, as we only provide short-term direction for those currency pairs from this issue. Source: HSBC

FX Data Snapshot

Related insights

 

The discussion continues on whether the USD has hit its lowest point and is ready to...[20 Oct]

 

US-China trade relations suddenly deteriorated over the weekend…[15 Oct]

 

Gold hits new highs despite a stronger USD. [13 Oct]

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